4 ways to time the Bitcoin Top 📈

Welcome back to the daily Coinsauce Newsletter, your go-to source for the latest crypto updates 🗞️. Happy Halving to all of you!

📈 Markets

Overall view: Cautious & Undecided bias.

Key level to watch: $66,800 (Resistance) & $59,600 (Support)

• Bitcoin is still trying to hold its range lows of $59,700.

• Till this level is held on the daily time frame, the bullish market structure remains intact on the daily time frame, and it is not advisable to short the market till then. A daily close below would be quite bearish for BTC.

• Price has formed a bullish hammer candle on the daily on support, which is a sign of bullish price reversal.

• However, Open interest is still falling along with falling prices, which is a sign of bearishness. OI dropped 11% last week, to hit its lowest point in 2024.

• After 4th consecutive day of outflows, the streak was broken yesterday with $59 million in inflows by the ETFs. Over the past month, ETF’s have had 11 days with inflows and 13 days with outflows, with an average of just $5 mil net inflows over the past 30 days. This demand needs to substantially rise for prices to go conclusively higher.

• On the flip side, there are other bullish signs too. The 4H RSI bullish divergence near the range lows is playing out. Till $66,800 is broken, it is advisable to stay cautious with longs.

• Bitcoin volatility increases in the days before & after the halving. Add to that the geopolitical uncertainty looming around, it would be wise to avoid leverage trading for the next few days for as long as possible.

• In case of a breakdown of the daily range, $53,100 is the next major area of support for BTC.

• Bitcoin Dominance has successfully re-tested & held it’s weekly breakout zone at 55.17%, indicating that BTC is set to outperform alts for the near future — at least till this newly formed support is broken. If dominance increases further while BTC breaks $59,700, there will be a bloodbath for altcoins.

  Tip : On days like these, where market direction/bias is still unclear due to contradictory indicators, it is advisable to stay light on your positions & avoid overtrading or micromanaging positions.

Educational 📔 

4 easy ways to spot the cycle top 👇️ 

After the BTC halving, prices have typically historically shot up over the next 300-500 days, making millionaires. However, many lose their gains by holding too long. Here are 5 signs that scream "the top is near," so you can dodge that bullet.

1. Open interest :

   Navigating through open interest trends has historically been an accurate & consistent way of predicting the macro top for BTC.

   When the rate of increase in Open Interest outpaces the rise in prices, it may signal a significant imminent correction. Notably, when the Open Interest (depicted in blue) surpasses the Price (depicted in black), it typically precedes a notable downturn in price shortly thereafter and has historically been a consistent leading indicator that predicts the correction.

   

2. Coinbase Fomo :

   The Coinbase app hitting #1 on the App Store has reliably predicted market tops. In December 2017, it reached #1 a week before Bitcoin's peak. In May 2021, it ranked #1 two weeks after Bitcoin hit $65,000. And in late October 2021, it became #1, with Bitcoin topping at $69,200 two weeks later.

   Currently, Coinbase is ranked #248, indicating that retail exit liquidity is still to come in, and prices can move a lot higher from current levels.

3. ETF outflows :

   The top 10 ETFs in the US currently hold over 831,500 BTC, around 4.3% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply. This elevated demand has been one of the primary causes of Bitcoin’s impressive price rally from $40k to $75k this year.

    

   A reversal in this trend, characterized by both consistent, as well as big sizable outflows exceeding inflows for these spot ETFs for weeks on end could signify waning interest among this cohort of investors, which could indicate that the top would be near for Bitcoin. This could trigger a ripple effect, leading to panic selling across various investor segments, ranging from all, whales, retail & institutional participants, causing the prices to fall.

4. Bitcoin Dominance :

   Usually, when BTC prices surge, investors book profits and rotate them into alts, causing an alt-season and euphoric market sentiments. This is seen on the charts, as Bitcoin Dominance starts falling off a cliff, and when this Dominance reaches 40%, that has historically been a clear sign of overheated markets, potentially hinting that the top is near.

   

   Note : The primary goal isn't to perfectly time the market's peak, but rather to secure profits as close to the top as possible. Using the mentioned indicators in isolation to predict the peak accurately would not be wise. Instead, when used together, a confluence of multiple aforementioned signs can provide a good indication of market overheating and the proximity of the top.

   Current Scenario :
   
   Currently, BTC dominance is still at 56%, Coinbase is still ranked as #248 on the App Store, Open Interest has been at the lowest levels since Jan 2024, and ETF inflows are still coming in hot.

   All of this indicates that the market cycle top is nowhere close to being in, and prices have plenty of room to move much higher from here! Patience is key!

   Disclaimer : None of the content mentioned here is financial advise. This is for educational purposes only.

🤣 Meme of the day

That concludes our update for today!

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