Bitcoin bounces back to ~$60,000 in a swift flash-crash recovery!

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📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook

• Overall Bias - Bullish, but only if price closes the week above $57,500 🙏 

• Bitcoin had broken its weekly bullish super-trend support with it’s latest correction, but has quickly bounced back above it again. To maintain the uptrend, BTC needs to close the week above $57,500. Until then, the outlook remains cautious.

• So far after the drop, the prices have recovered well. We need to wait till Sunday for the weekly close to see how sustainable this bounce can be. A close above $57,500 would signal positive momentum.

• The 200-week moving average at $38,000 is expected to act as strong support in a worst-case scenario, similar to the Covid-19 crash.

• With rising BTC dominance, it is currently wiser to have more exposure to BTC than altcoins until the dominance trend reverses.

• Till BTC flips its 200 Daily Moving Average at $62,000, it is not advisable to buy alts.

BTC Revisits ~$60,000 After Recession Fears 📈 

Bitcoin has rebounded by more than 22% in just four days after a sharp flash crash pushed its price below $49,000.

The swift recovery is largely attributed to positive economic data from the U.S., where weekly jobless claims dropped significantly, easing market concerns.

For the week ending August 3, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000, marking the largest decline in nearly 11 months and outperforming the forecast of 240,000 claims.

Bitcoin quickly recovered from its low of $48,800, rising to $59,800 at the time of writing. A weekly close above this level would demonstrate strength and resilience by the bulls.

Putin X Bitcoin 🤲 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a new law that officially legalizes cryptocurrency mining in the country.

The legislation introduces several important concepts, including digital currency mining, mining pools, and mining infrastructure operators.

Under the new law, Russian legal entities and individual entrepreneurs registered with the government are permitted to engage in cryptocurrency mining.

Moreover, individual miners can continue without registration, as long as their energy consumption stays within limits set by the government.

The law also allows for the trading of foreign digital financial assets on Russian blockchain platforms.

This legislation will take effect ten days after its official publication

📕 Educational

🚀 The Rise of Polymarket: A Game-Changer in Prediction Markets!

Introduction :

Founded in 2020, Polymarket has quickly emerged as the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, built on the Polygon Network.

From sports and politics to pop culture, Polymarket allows users to place bets on a wide range of topics, and it has recently surpassed $1 billion in cumulative trading volume.

Key Milestone:

On August 8, 2024, Polymarket made history by recording the highest single-day volume in prediction markets—$29.79 million.

Impressive Stats:

• $1.168 billion in cumulative prediction volume.

• Over 6 million total bets placed.

• $108 million in prediction volume in the first week of August alone

• 14x growth in weekly active users YTD (from 1,400 to 20,000+)

• 10x growth in daily page views, now over 32 million

How It Works:

Polymarket uses binary markets where the price of a bet reflects market odds. Users can buy, sell, or hold their positions, with outcomes resolving to $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it doesn’t. The platform’s AMM's ensure liquidity, allowing seamless transactions without waiting for a counterparty. Prices adjust dynamically, reflecting real-time probabilities.

The platform’s hybrid model combines on-chain, non-custodial settlement (CLOB) with off-chain matchmaking services, offering both security and efficiency.

Challenges and Risks:

Operating in a complex regulatory environment, Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents, and regulatory developments could impact operations in other regions. Additional risks include potential technical issues, misinformation affecting market outcomes, and whale manipulation, where large bets can skew data.

Reasons for Success:

Polymarket’s user-friendly interface and seamless experience are driving strong retention rates. Of the users who joined in Q1 2024, 45% made a trade again in the following quarter—up from 25% in Q1 2023. This is a testament to the platform’s stickiness and product-market fit.

Competition:

Polymarket faces competition from other prediction markets across different blockchains, including :

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin Hivemind

• Ethereum: Augur , Shuffle, Azuro,

• Arbitrum: Duel Now

• Solana: Drift Protocol

Looking Ahead:

Despite regulatory challenges, Polymarket is well-positioned to continue thriving in both traditional and crypto markets. Its success underscores the importance of having the right product-market fit, with real-world demand and utility.

Source : Asva Capital

📊 Stat of the day

📈 Chart of the day

• Rationale & Confluences :

• Ascending triangle breakout.

• Next target level is the psychological level of 60%

• As long as BTC dominance continues its up-trend, alts will continue to lag behind Bitcoin.

• Once BTC dominance reverses it’s trend, a massive alt-season can be expected.

• Note : None of the content here is financial advise. This is for educational purposes only.

• Source : Cointraction

🤣Meme of the day

Accurate 🤣 

That concludes our update for today!

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Disclaimer : None of the content shared in the newsletter is financial advise. Always do your own research before investing.