BTC hits $71k! Are Ethereum spot ETFs around the corner ⁉️

Welcome to the daily Coinsauce Newsletter, its good to be back and Bitcoin is back at $71,000, lets get straight into today’s newsletter!

📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook

• 1 BTC = $71,000 🚀 

• BTC has broken above it’s key resistance of $67,200 with strength & volume.

• It is now aiming to re-test All-Time-Highs (ATH) and reach price discovery

• $67,200 has now flipped into a key area of support in case of a re-test

• Since ETF demand has picked up drastically, chances for a new ATH increase

• To trade the breakout, make sure to look for a full body candle on the lower time frame, strong volumes, strong momentum on the RSI, and rising open on the breakout move to avoid being caught up in a fake move.

• ETH is also trying to break $3750 and if it does, then a breakout trade opens up till new yearly highs, with an ~8% upside.

When ETH ETF ⁉️ 

Ethereum surged 18% in just 24 hours due to fresh speculation that spot ETFs might get approved this week, despite months of doubt.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart mentioned that there's talk of the SEC pushing applicants to speed up their filings. This led the analysts to raise the chances of approval from 25% to 75%.

On Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, the odds of a spot Ether ETF getting approved jumped from 11% to 54%.

The SEC is set make it’s decision on the approval of VanEck’s spot Ether ETF application by May 23.

Coinsauce’s alpha :

SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) & S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch. Technically it is possible for SEC to approve 19b-4s & then slow play S-1s.

This means that even after the 19b-4s are approved, it could be months before the ETH ETF’s actually trade live. However, speculation alone could be sufficient for ETH to hit new all time highs if the exchange rule changes are approved this week!

Venezuela bans Bitcoin mining ❌ 

The Venezuelan government is cracking down on crypto mining due to its high electricity demands.

Venezuela’s Ministry of Electric Power is planning to disconnect Bitcoin mining farms from the national grid to manage energy consumption and ensure a stable power supply for the public.

Recently, 2,000 crypto mining devices were confiscated in Maracay as part of an anti-corruption effort.

The ministry aims to provide efficient and reliable electricity across Venezuela and avoid frequent blackouts by reducing the strain from these energy-intensive farms.

 📔 Educational

On-chain metrics can support our trading biases, especially when they align with price action and technical analysis. Key metrics include:

1. ETF Inflows:

   • Bullish: Consistent inflows over $150M/day for 5+ days.

   • Bearish: Net outflows, no inflows, or inflows under $50M for several days, especially near resistance zones.

2. Fear & Greed Index:

   • Extreme fear or greed for a week+ signals a potential trend reversal.

   • Avoid longs in extreme greed; avoid shorts in extreme fear. Plan counter-trend trades based on key levels.

3. Funding Rates:

   • Neutral at 0.01%.

   • Caution for longs if 4-5X higher for a week, indicating an overheated market.

   • Negative rates in a bull market could hint at an upward reversal.

4. Liquidation Map:

   • A 3X imbalance indicates potential price moves to liquidate overleveraged positions.

5. Liquidation Heatmap:

   • Yellow liquidity zones attract prices. Markets move towards these liquidity areas.

6. Order-Book Imbalance (OBI):

   • Positive OBI confirms breakouts; negative OBI confirms breakdowns.

   • Avoid trades if OBI diverges from price action.

7. Open Interest (OI) :

   • OI can be added as an indicator on tradingview charts on perpetual futurest tickers BTC/USDT.P, ETH/USDT.P, etc

   • Rising Prices + Rising OI: Strong uptrend.

   • Rising Prices + Falling OI: Weak uptrend, possible reversal.

   • Falling Prices + Rising OI: Strong downtrend.

   • Falling Prices + Falling OI: Weak downtrend, possible reversal.

8. Exchange Balance:

   • Bearish: Sudden spike in exchange inflows.

   • Bullish: Sudden decrease in inflows or increase in outflows to cold wallets.

Note: Use multiple metrics together for a stronger trade view. Aim for 5-6 metrics pointing in the same direction as your technical analysis.

📊 Stats

📈 Chart of the day

• Based on the ETF approval speculation for Ethereum, ETH could break out of it’s $3750 resistance and target new all time highs

• If this happens, then a trade possibility opens up upon the breakout of this resistance

• Look for full body candles, strong volumes, strong RSI momentum & rising open interest on this breakout move to avoid being trapped in a false move

• It is quite possible that ETH gets rejected from the $3670 resistance as well, but based on the bullishness of the news, it is wiser to prepare for a buy-side trade.

Note : No content mentioned anywhere in this newsletter is financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.

🤣 Meme of the day

That concludes our update for today!

We appreciate you joining us for the latest news. Our aim is to provide insights and highlights that keep you well-informed and ready. Remember to follow us on social media for additional updates and giveaways. Happy trading, and see you next time!