Is the Bull-Run Over ❓️

Welcome to the Daily Coinsauce Newsletter, its good to be back. If you like our regular updates, then let us know with a “Yes” vote and a feedback comment at the end. Let’s get straight into today’s highlights.

📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook

• Overall Bias - Neutral 📈 

• BTC is trying to hold it’s $56,500 support zone, which is in confluence with a daily horizontal support and ~the 200 Daily Moving Average

• If this support gets broken, price can fall till the sub $50,000 ranges.

• So far, the price has respected the initial support level. Usually, buying in spot with a very long term perspective on the 200 Day MA has never been a bad idea.

• $64,500 & $66,200 are crucial levels that need to be broken on the upside to protect the support zones mentioned above.

Is the Bull-Market Over ❓️

We at Coinsauce understand that the need of the hour is to address the fear in the market, rather than brining about more fear by reporting forced headlines. So here, let us address the most important question being asked by everyone :

Is the Bull Market Now Over?

As Bitcoin has dropped below $60,000, speculators are fearing a further collapse in price, leading to the end of the bull-run we've seen so far this year.

However, to understand the current situation more objectively, let’s look at Bitcoin's performance compared to past cycles:

👉Peak-to-Peak Performance: Bitcoin is currently outperforming the last two cycles.

👉Historical Positioning: At this stage in previous cycles, Bitcoin was about 40% below its all-time highs. Applying that to today's prices would mean Bitcoin should be around $42,000, which is 33% lower than the current price. This means that even if prices drop another 33% from here, we would still be well within the realms of a bull-market continuation based on historic cycles.

👉Post-Halving Pattern: Bitcoin typically consolidates for 3-4 months after a halving, which is what we’re seeing now.

👉Cooling Off: After 7 consecutive months of gains earlier this year—a first for Bitcoin—it’s natural and healthy to see some cool off periods. Historical drawdowns in bull-markets have ranged from anywhere between 10-60%, so the correction we are witnessing now is not an outlier.

👉 Conclusion : As of now, most on-chain metrics, technical analysis, and historical market cycle analysis, all are data points that are not supportive of the opinion of a bull-run being over yet

In the chart of the day section, we have highlighted, from a technical analysis perspective, a better time to enter into Bitcoin for possibly superior risk adjusted returns.

📕 Educational

Identifying fair launch tokens 🔍

Most new tokens backed by VC's experience significant price drops due to heavy dilution in the post launch.

In contrast, fair launch tokens, focus on equitable and transparent distribution without early access or pre-mining and offer a different approach. These tokens prioritize community distribution, avoiding giving any group undue control to insiders :

A few lesser known fair launch tokens include 👇

👉 Helium ($HNT): A decentralized blockchain for IoT devices, using Hotspots for network connectivity. 75% of its total supply is in circulation.

👉 Kaspa ($KAS): A decentralized, Layer-1 protocol similar to Bitcoin but using a BlockDAG for faster transactions, processing one block per second. 85% of its total supply is in circulation.

👉 Realio ($RIO): A blockchain-based private equity firm focusing on tokenization and digital asset issuance, launched without pre-mining or an ICO, with a maximum supply of 75 million tokens.

👉 MorpheusAI ($MOR): Incentivizes a peer-to-peer network of personal AIs, rewarding contributors with the fairly launched MOR token.

📊 Stats

📈 Chart of the day

• When will be a safer time to buy Bitcoin:

• Now that the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the Bull Market Support Band (20D SMA + 21W EMA), and the weekly supertrend has also flipped bearish, it is wise to wait for a trend change before buying BTC.

• Waiting for a shade flip to green on the weekly supertrend , along with an up-sloping Bull Market Support Band would be wiser, to avoid further drawdowns.

• This way, although you will not buy the bottom, you will manage risk efficiently and have superior risk-adjusted returns, by capturing the majority cream of the up-move.

• Supertrend settings include the following : 10 ATR Length, 1.5 Factor

• Note : None of the content mentioned in the newsletter is financial advise. Everything here is for educational purposes only.

• Source : Cointraction 

🤣 Meme of the day

That concludes our update for today!

We appreciate you joining us for the latest news. Our aim is to provide insights and highlights that keep you well-informed and ready. Remember to follow us on social media for additional updates and giveaways. Happy trading, and see you next time!

Disclaimer : None of the content shared in the newsletter is financial advise. Always do your own research before investing.