All eyes on U.S CPI 👀

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📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook

• Overall Bias - Cautious till $62,400 is broken 🙏 

• Bitcoin closed the week above $60,000 after dropping to as low as $48,800.

• The 200 Daily Moving Average at $62,400 is now a crucial level to monitor for Bitcoin.

• A rejection from $62,400 with a weekly close below $57,000 would be bearish.

• A breakout from $62,400 with a weekly close above $63,000 would be bullish.

• It is wise to not take any new leveraged positions till this moving average is flipped and prices break the 200 day moving average.

All eyes on U.S.A CPI 🇺🇸 

Today’s CPI inflation data is crucial for Bitcoin and risk-on assets.

Wall Street is currently showing 2.9% as the consensus expectation. However, there is a 37% chance of inflation coming in above 2.9% & a 63% chance of inflation coming in below 3.0%.

There is also an 11% chance of inflation coming in above 3.0%, putting inflation back on the rise.

CPI inflation above 3.0% tomorrow would mean that inflation has risen 3 out of the last 5 months.

The PPI (Wholesale Inflation) data that came out yesterday increased by 0.1% on the month, less than 0.2% forecast

More importantly, the FED is soon expected to cut interest rates in September, and analysts are hoping for a bullish Q4 2024 & Q1 2025 for Bitcoin!

Marathon Digital X Bitcoin 🙏 

Marathon Digital Holdings CEO said that their $250 million offering to buy more Bitcoin is now oversubscribed.

Earlier last week, Marathon announced plans to raise $250 million via debt offering to buy more bitcoin. The company's convertible senior notes would mature in September 2031.

Marathon currently hold more than 20,000 bitcoin on their balance sheet, making it the publicly traded company with the second-largest bitcoin holdings after MicroStrategy.

📕 Educational

Quantifying the remaining VC sell pressure 🔍️ 

As of last week, unvested tokens in the global crypto market cap were valued at ~$150 billion, down from over $400 billion in March. These unvested tokens now make up ~27% of the altcoin market and ~7.1% of the total crypto market cap, compared to over 50% of the altcoin market in March.

Since March, ~62.5% of pending tokens have vested, leaving ~37.5% still to be released. During this period, most of these tokens have seen significant price drops:

• W: -84%

• STRK: -81%

• SAGA: -80%

• PIXEL: -78%

• ALT: -75%

• DYM: -74%

• MANTA: -74%

This decline is expected as increased supply from vesting, combined with low market demand, puts downward pressure on prices.

📊 Resource

📈 Chart of the day

• Rationale & Confluences :

• Trying to breakout from an ascending triangle on the daily timeframe

• A breakout and weekly close over $2481 will put bulls in control

• A breakdown below $2383 would be short-term bearish.

• Exercising patience till a weekly close is wise.

• In a worst-case scenario, a re-test of $2100 can be a good buy opportunity if the re-test is confirmed with bullish price action.

• Overall, gold looks to be in a healthy uptrend since the start of the year.

• Source : Cointraction

🤣Meme of the day

Accurate 😂 

That concludes our update for today!

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Disclaimer : None of the content shared in the newsletter is financial advise. Always do your own research before investing.