Is BTC due for a short-term correction due to increase in Spot ETF demand?

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📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook For The Week

• Overall Bias - Cautious 🙏 

• BTC is re-testing the bull-market support band at $62,700-$64,000, trying to break this major resistance.

• This is a crucial price level. If BTC gets rejected here, further downside can be expected.

• Historically, Q4 has been the best-performing quarter for BTC so that we can expect some bullish momentum due to seasonality.

• For the bulls, a breakout above $67,500 will take BTC to new all-time highs

• It is wise to not take any new leveraged positions till BTC closes above $67,500, and just DCA in spot instead.

Bitcoin ETF’s catch fire 🔥 

In the past 7 days, US Bitcoin ETF’s have acquired $1.1 billion in Bitcoin. Over the long term, this has a significantly positive impact as it signals that institutions are acquiring BTC even at these higher price levels.

However, over the shorter term, this could signal the start of a correction phase for Bitcoin. Historically, every time BTC ETF’s have aggressively started scooping up BTC, it has marked a local top for Bitcoin, as can be seen in the image above.

As mentioned in the price update at the start of the newsletter, Q4’s have been historically bullish for BTC, so even if we get a small correction based on the data above, we expect prices to be bought back up relatively quickly.

Metaplanet adds more BTC ⚡️ 

The Japanese public company Metaplanet has purchased 107.91 BTC, worth ¥1 billion (approximately $6.7 million).

They now hold around 506 BTC, worth over $32.3 million at current prices.

They have also unveiled intentions to tokenize its shares via Bitcoin layer-2 network, Liquid.

By implementing this tokenization strategy, Metaplanet intends to expand its investor reach, thereby enabling US investors and global investors alike to engage with the firm.

The company’s stock has gained around 495% year-to-date.

📕 Educational

Monthly Recap & Q4 Seasonality for Bitcoin

September Monthly Recap 🔍

👉 BTC Price: +7.38%. This was the most bullish September for BTC since 2013.

👉 BTC Dominance: -0.04%. Bitcoin Dominance showed signs of weakness, allowing selective altcoins to rally higher.

👉 ETF Flows: Net inflows of $1.263 billion, as compared to net inflows of $3.167 billion last month. The longest inflow streak lasted 8 days.

👉 Fear & Greed Index: 50 (Neutral), swinging from a high of 64 (Greed) to a low of 26 (Fear).

👉 Funding Rates: Ranged from +12.02% to -6.72% APR for perpetual swaps, indicating a consolidating and cooled down market.

👉 Key On-Chain Metric: Institutions have stopped aggressively shorting Bitcoin. CME futures net positions have declined by 75% over the past 5 months.

👉 Looking Ahead: Q4 has been historically very bullish for BTC, and the same is expected this time around too. If BTC closes a week above $67,600, that would be very bullish for BTC and could trigger the next leg up for Bitcoin.

October & Q4 Seasonality for Bitcoin 🔍️ 

👉 80% of Octobers have been green

👉100% of election years had a green October, November and December

👉 100% of the years with a green September had a green October, November and December.

📊 Stat of the day

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📈 Chart of the day

Rationale & Confluences

• Breakout re-test confirmation

• Macro horizontal support

• Bull market support band support

• 0.382 fib retracement support

• 20 Day EMA support

• Source : Cointraction

🤣 Meme of the day

That concludes our update for today!

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Disclaimer : None of the content shared in the newsletter is financial advise. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.