Tether reports $5.2 Billion in Q2 profits

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📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook

• Overall Bias - Bearish till price closes the week above $57,500 🙏 

• Bitcoin has broken its weekly bullish super-trend support. To maintain an uptrend, BTC needs to close the week above $57,500. Until then, the outlook remains bearish.

• The 200-week moving average at $38,000 is expected to act as strong support in a worst-case scenario, similar to the Covid-19 crash.

• BTC is trying to hold its weekly horizontal support at $52,000. A drop below this level could lead to retesting the $44,000 and $38,000 support zones. A close above $57,500 would signal bullish momentum.

• With rising BTC dominance, it is currently wiser to have more exposure to BTC than altcoins until the dominance trend reverses.

• Till prices flip the 200 Daily Moving Average, it is not advisable to buy BTC or alts.

Liquidation Games Begin 🔴 

Over $1 billion was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market yesterday, marking the highest single-day liquidation in three years.

279,853 crypto traders were liquidated in total. After the latest dip, short side traders are more overleveraged than long traders, and over $800 million worth of short trades can be liquidated if the price of BTC hits $59,800.

Analyzing the liquidation map can be helpful at times to assess the short term direction of the market. Market makers love hunting liquidity, thus the market tends to move to prices where most liquidity is being built.

Jump Crypto Dumps Ethereum 🔻 

Jump Crypto, part of Jump Trading, moved over $314 million worth of staked Ether to multiple exchanges, sparking sell-off speculation. On July 24, over 120,000 ETH were transferred following the U.S. launch of spot Ether ETFs.

They have un-staked $410 million in total, with $191 million already on exchanges like Coinbase & Binance. They still hold $125.8 million in staked Ether.

The transfers, including USDC, USDT, UNI, and SHIB, coincided with a 15% drop in Bitcoin leading to criticism and speculation about their intentions.

This follows the resignation of Jump Crypto’s president, Kanav Kariya, amid a CFTC investigation.

📕 Educational

All the Macro headwinds for BTC explained 🔻 

A lot has happened this week. Bitcoin fell by over $20,000 in a week, with significant macro developments over the weekend. Here's a breakdown of the events and the future outlook

Crypto Market ⚠️ 

Bitcoin Correction: Bitcoin experienced a 30% correction from its all-time high, dropping over 15% to a low of $48,888, a level last seen in January 2021.

Record Liquidations: Over $1 billion was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours, marking the highest single-day liquidation in three years.

Jump Crypto Activity: Jump Crypto transferred $277 million worth of ETH to exchanges over the past 10 days, sparking speculation about the firm's potential exit from the crypto business due to regulatory concerns.

Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin's market dominance reached a new cycle high of 58% as altcoins saw significant double-digit declines.

Negative Profit Margins: Traders are facing their most negative unrealized profit margins since November 2022.

Macro Influences: These market movements appear to be influenced by broader macroeconomic factors.

Broader Economic Context

Japanese Stock Market: Japan's stock market posted its biggest 2-day drop in history.

Significant Stock Losses: The "Magnificent 7" stocks lost over $1 trillion in market cap in a single day.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of an emergency Fed rate cut and a 100% chance of a rate cut in September.

South Korea Market Halt: South Korea halted all sell orders on its stock market.

Nasdaq Futures Drop: Nasdaq futures fell as much as 6.5% in one day.

Robinhood Trading Halt: Robinhood halted 24-hour trading due to high market volatility.

10-Year Note Yield Drop: The 10-Year Note Yield fell by 60 basis points in one week.

Rising Unemployment: The unemployment rate reached a 3-year high of 4.3%.

Volatility Surge: The volatility index ($VIX) rose by over 100% in one month.

Berkshire Hathaway Actions: Berkshire Hathaway sold 50% of its Apple shares and is now holding a record $277 billion in US Treasury Bills.

📊 Stat of the day

📈 Chart of the day

• Bitcoin Price Levels: Bitcoin has broken its weekly bullish super-trend support, raising concerns about its short- to mid-term price action. To maintain an uptrend, BTC needs to close the week above $57,500. Until then, the outlook remains bearish.

• Key Support Levels: The 200-week moving average at $38,000 is expected to act as strong support in a worst-case scenario, similar to the Covid-19 crash.

• Current Support: BTC is trying to hold its weekly horizontal support at $52,000. A drop below this level could lead to retesting the $44,000 and $38,000 support zones. A close above $57,500 would signal bullish momentum.

• BTC Dominance : With rising BTC dominance, it is currently wiser to have more exposure to BTC than altcoins until the dominance trend reverses.

• Note : None of the content here is financial advise. This is for educational purposes only.

• Source : Cointraction

🤣Meme of the day

That concludes our update for today!

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Disclaimer : None of the content shared in the newsletter is financial advise. Always do your own research before investing.