Metaplanet acquires an additional 38 Bitcoin worth $2 million 💰️

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📅 Today

🔍️ Market Outlook

• Overall Bias - Cautious 🙏 

• BTC broke the key $62,400 level, but failed to re-test and hold it as support.

• It also failed to hold $56,000, a crucial support zone.

• BTC is now trying to re-test these levels as resistance.

• $60,000-$63,000 is a big resistance area that BTC must break, or risk further consolidation otherwise,

• This level is the bull-market support band (20 Week SMA & 21 Week EMA)

• It is wise to not take any new leveraged positions till BTC closes above this band, and till BTC dominance reverses it’s uptrend.

Metaplanet Stacks More Sats 💰️ 

Metaplanet has increased its Bitcoin holdings aby acquiring an additional 38 BTC worth $2 million purchase, bringing its total to 398 BTC, worth $26 million.

The company has been steadily growing its Bitcoin reserves as part of its strategy to use the cryptocurrency as a treasury asset.

This move comes amid Japan's economic challenges, including high government debt, persistent negative real interest rates, and a weakening yen.

Additionally, Metaplanet recently also announced plans to raise approximately 299.7 million yen by exercising rights to acquire series 11 shares, with the funds set to buy even more Bitcoin.

FED Rate Cuts May Negatively Affect Bitcoin ❗️ 

At the time of writing, the market is expecting a 28% probability for a 50 bps rate cut, and a 72% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September

Despite rate cuts typically being bullish for risk assets, a potential 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve could signal severe economic concerns, possibly affecting risk assets like Bitcoin negatively.

According to research from 10x, despite appearing bullish, such a rate cut may lead to an initial sell-off as investors prepare for more economic instability.

However, over the macro scale, and the timing of the rate-cuts along with the BTC halving year and election periods indicate that there are sufficient tailwinds for BTC to pull off yet another impressive rally later.

📕 Educational

Timing the Market with the CBBI: A Guide to Spot Crypto Tops and Bottoms 💪

Timing is one of the most valuable skills in crypto—if only buying low and selling high were that easy! Fortunately, there’s a tool that brings together high-quality metrics to help you navigate the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin cycles:

The Colin Talks Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), created by ColinTCrypto.

→ What is the CBBI?

The CBBI is an index that uses real-time analysis of 9 advanced metrics to gauge the current stage of Bitcoin's bull and bear market cycles.

→ Incorporated Metrics:

1. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

2. RHODL Ratio

3. The Puell Multiple

4. 2-Year MA Multiplier

5. Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart

6. MVRV Z-Score

7. Reserve Risk

8. Woobull

9. Pi Cycle Top Indicator

→ Using CBBI for Selling the Top:

• Turn on all the metrics and observe the index value:

• Start considering selling when the index is above 90.

• Sell more aggressively when it reaches 95 or higher.

→ Using CBBI for Buying the Bottom:

• Reverse the approach for buying:

• Start buying when the index falls below 10.

• Buy aggressively when it drops below 5.

→ Historic Performance & Looking Ahead :

The CBBI has historically provided strong signals near cycle peaks:

• December 2013: CBBI reached 97 (BTC price: $1,183, Cycle Peak Price: $1,242)

• December 2017: CBBI peaked at 100 (BTC price: $19,300, Cycle Peak Price: $19,300)

• April 2021: CBBI hit 97 (BTC price: $63,500, Cycle Peak Price: $69,000)

• In the current cycle, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $74,000, the CBBI only climbed to 82—far below previous peak levels.

• This suggests that $74,000 was not the cycle peak, indicating a strong possibility of another euphoric leg up for Bitcoin. Currently, the index value stands at 59.

→ Important Note:

Past performance is not indicative of future results. While the CBBI provides a reasonable framework for timing entries and exits, it doesn’t guarantee perfect market timing. Use it as a guide, not an absolute rule.

📊 Stat of the day

📈 Chart of the day

Rationale & Confluences

• $9.6 - $10 looks like a good DCA zone for link

• Macro horizontal support

• Bullish 1D RSI divergence

• 1W Stochastic RSI oversold

• Re-test confirmed with bullish price action at support

• Source : Cointraction

🤣 Meme of the day

Don’t be this guy 🤣 

That concludes our update for today!

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Disclaimer : None of the content shared in the newsletter is financial advise. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.